Gas Cheap Now, But Not for Long

Filling up at the pump is less painful than in the recent past.

I saw gasoline for $1.69 per gallon for Regular (cash) yesterday on Route 1 in New Jersey. It has been a long time since we have seen gasoline that low and the relief to the consumer's wallet is a welcome one indeed. It is tantamount to a tax cut on the citizens or even a pay raise. The bottom line is that it gives people more money to spend on other important things and can even increase household savings rates and encourage on-the-road travel vacationing. The low price of oil and the resultant low price on gasoline and diesel fuel are boons to the economy in many ways.

So why are prices as low as they are? It's because of the extra oil on the market from U.S. oil production which has seen a boom in recent years, due in part to hydraulic fracturing and increased oil drilling on private lands.

But my point with this post is not to talk about why there is so much oil, or the benefits of fracking. There are many articles and blog posts addressing these issues. The point of this particular post is to throw a wet blanket on this low-price enthusiasm.

The price won't be low for long. And the past would be the indicator of future performance.

In 2009, the price of gasoline dropped below $2.00 a gallon for a brief time and then continuously rose back up to $3.50 to $4.00 a gallon for Regular in New Jersey. The chart below shows the price per barrel which the price per gallon of gasoline follows in its movements.

From Infomine.com

The message? Get it while it's hot, because very soon it's going to shoot back up to $3.50 per gallon and probably higher.

What are the causes of oil price movement? Supply, demand, political unrest and government regulation. Right now supply is greater than demand, so the price is lower. But there are so many political hotspots in the world today that any one of these tipping points that tips could cause oil futures to shoot back up to $120 per barrel.

As examples, Russia's designs on Ukraine and its trouble-making around the world have the potential for causing oil prices to rise, and this is a country that wants oil prices to rise back up because so much of their economy and budgetary income is based on the sale of oil and natural gas. So for Russia, instability on the world stage which causes higher fuel prices is exactly what they want and need.

Daesh or ISIS, is militant Islam rampaging through the Middle East and threatening terror everywhere else. They are currently in control of half of Syria and much of Iraq. It won't take much for that particular march of evil to cause an oil price spike. If they were to succeed in taking over Syria or Iraq, or cause mayhem in Saudi Arabia, Jordan or Israel, these are just some scenarios that would be catalysts for crisis leading to an oil price rise.

Al Qaeda, the original Islamic terrorist group is still a very real threat and actively trying to bring terror killings to the next horrific level. There is no restraint as to the kind of murder and destruction that they would like to perform and if they had a weapon of mass destruction they would have no hesitation in using it, as we have seen on 9/11 and in other events. Hamas and Hezbollah are the more localized but just as dangerous militant Islamists of the Middle East. Any of these groups could and would bring economic chaos that could result in sky-high oil prices.

Iran is a country that wants to see Israel and America (the great Satan) destroyed. It is progressing in its efforts to become a nuclear power with Russia's and North Korea's help. It could very soon succeed in its efforts to make a nuclear weapon. If that happens Israel may bomb Iran's nuclear facilities causing a regional war. This would spike oil prices.

The Taliban is still killing people in Afghanistan and Pakistan and seems intent on continuing to cause death and destabilization, also through the spread of terror.

The Communist-led, police-state of China always takes the side of the bad actors on the world stage as shown by its support of Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, and Russia. And it is intent on destabilizing Taiwan, threatening the U.S. and Japan, and throwing its weight around the region and the world. And China never seems to lend its growing military might to world security threats that other civilized countries fight against. Their belligerent actions could be the cause of any number of scenarios that could cause an oil price spike.

Even if it isn't a national political action that causes the problem, it could be a crucial break in the supply chain, perhaps a few oil refineries going down, a natural disaster or a massive oil spill like the one in the Gulf of Mexico a few years ago. The anti-hydraulic fracturing movement could also put a political chokehold on oil derived from this process especially if countries regulate against the process as many individual states in the U.S. have done.

So, sorry to be a stick-in-the-mud, but enjoy the lower cost of gas for your car and fill up your fuel oil tank now because inevitably the low price we see now will soon disappear to be replaced again by the signs we are so used to.

U.S. Thinks Pakistan Handed Over Pieces of Secret Helicopter to China

A Black Hawk Helicopter

Pakistan may have allowed a helicopter (used in the raid against Osama bin Laden) with secret stealth technology to be viewed by the Chinese government, according to the New York Times. And U.S. intelligence officials even believe that the Pakistanis may have allowed the Chinese to take a sample of the downed chopper.

As can be expected, Pakistan denies letting anyone see the helicopter and China denies any involvement. No surprise there. Pakistan and China are always denying things after sticking it to the U.S.

At the very least, it’s time we stop giving money that we don’t have to Pakistan. The U.S. gives that country billions of dollars a year and what we get is a haven for the Taliban who operate against and kill our troops from bases in Pakistan. We get Osama living in a compound in Pakistan for at least six years. We get begrudging help in the fight against the Taliban, all from a country that is filled with Islamic extremists that hate the West.

No Official Bin Laden Death Photos - For Now

I agree wholeheartedly with the Obama administration's decision not to release pictures of Osama bin Laden's dead body. The fact that he is shark food at the bottom of the ocean and no longer a source of terrorist activity, murder, mayhem, and jihadist inspiration should be enough satisfaction for those of us in the U.S. and everywhere else in the civilized world who believe that the U.S. government wouldn't lie about THIS. In fact, they could not lie about it because the truth would leak out eventually. And for those that seriously want proof, I am sure they can approach the White House for the DNA evidence and other evidence, which some press outlets like 60 Minutes, The New York Times, or The National Enquirer will likely do. Besides, photographic evidence is almost worthless these days with the easy digital photo manipulation of photographs that goes on.

Already a horrible, fake, dead Osama is floating around on Facebook and probably scaring some kids whose newsfeed it shows up in because some friend or family member commented on it. The fake is really gruesome as I am sure the original is.

What would be the good reason to release the pictures? To assure our enemies the Islamic Jihadist terrorists, the Taliban, Hamas, Hezbolla, and Ahmadinejad that we are not lying, Osama really is dead? Will that suddenly convert them to our side? No. We don't even need to think for a second about releasing it for their sakes. Should we release it for the sakes of the people of Afghanistan who may be on the fence about whether to support the U.S./Afghan government or the Taliban? Maybe, if it will convince the leaders and the citizens of Afghanistan that the main source of funds to the Taliban in the past is out of the picture and that they can side with the forces of good, then it may be a useful tool in ending the hostilities in that country.

As far as skeptical governments, the U.S. can work directly with any of these and show them directly all evidence it has, including the photographic evidence. But this is the problem.

Unfortunately, the way the world works today, information can't be kept secret for long if there is a desire for it. Think wikileaks. At some point the real photo will leak out, by someone within the government, or someone who the government shows the evidence to, then the U.S. government will feign anger at the leak, but then admit that the photo or photos are authentic.

It is just a matter of time before evidence or photos of Osama bin Laden's death leak from the sieve that is the U.S. government, so unfortunately, the arguments for or against releasing them are really a moot point.

Hell Welcomes Its Newest Resident

Passport to Hell Stamped Approved

Almost ten years after planning, funding, and training fellow jihadists for the attacks of September 11, the founder and leader of the al Qaeda terrorist network, Osama bin Laden is dead, gone from this world thanks to the CIA, the Navy Seals, and other special ops forces, and a strong leadership hand from Barack Obama. You can see the president's statement here.

The U.S. special ops team raided bin Laden's mansion/compound in Islamabad, the CAPITAL of Pakistan, killed the world's leading terrorist, and dragged his body out of there with them, presumably in their Blackhawk helicopter. Later, after gathering the evidence needed for proof of his having been killed (whether DNA or photographic or both, we don't know at this moment) the terrorist's body was buried at sea so that a Muslim tradition of being buried within twenty-four hours of death could be adhered to.

I want to congratulate President Obama for staying strong in terms of wanting to find bin Laden and for not hesitating to go into Pakistan to do it. I remember candidate Obama stating that he would go into Pakistan if necessary to pursue al Qaeda, the Taliban, and bin Laden and he has shown willingness to do so. President Bush wanted very badly to find Osama bin Laden and had seven years to do it. We don't know if it was for lack of trying, or lack of political will, or lack of intelligence on the ground that he didn't find bin Laden. But thank God he has been finally found and brought to justice, and the families of the 9/11 victims and all U.S. citizens and residents, and all civilized peoples can for a moment feel that justice can be served in this world, and that evil people and evil acts can and will be punished at some point in time.

The world is clearly better off without its most notorious terrorist and Islamic radical jihadist, but the coming days could see a spike in terrorist bombings or bombing attempts as al Qaeda cells strive to prove that the fight will go on without their infamous and now deceased leader. It is also clear to all that the war against terror will and must go on until the radical, bloodthirsty wing of a religion that is practiced peacefully by most of its adherents, find nonlethal tools to express themselves. Unfortunately this doesn't seem likely to happen anytime too soon. For the moment at least, we have some good news in the war against civilization - General Osama bin Laden is dead!

Wikileaks - Saboteurs of the Public Good

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, said the leak of the Afghanistan war documents creates a real potential threat to put American lives at risk.

This Julian Assange who runs the Wikileaks website and the people who supplied U.S. government documents that may hurt troops on the field and may also reduce operational effectiveness (ie. undermine the war against al Qaida, the Taliban, and terrorism) should be rounded up for being traitors if they live in this country and as enemy combatants if they live in another country. It’s hard enough to win a war without our own citizens undermining the efforts of the free countries of the world to win the fight against oppressive and evil regimes, and organizations.

Government secrets are secrets for a reason. While there may be damning information in any cache of documents, when citizens obtain state secrets and release them, they are practicing statecraft without a license. Sort of like if they decided to tell a surgeon what cuts to make on a patient in surgery, or backseat air traffic controlling. They are assuming that they know better than said government about the issue that the state is trying to keep secret.

In this case, it works out to be an anti-west, anti-US, anti-good, pro-bad guys theft and release of government secrets.

Again, it is my opinion that everyone involved in this "state secrets dump" in a substantial way should be tried as a traitor or an enemy combatant and taken to Guantanamo Bay. They are not a force for public good and may be putting American and NATO troops at risk. There are watchdogs and there are saboteurs. Wikileaks founder and his cohorts are saboteurs.